Bitcoin faces one-month lows as it flirts with support levels around $65,000. Analysts weigh in on potential BTC price movements amid macroeconomic shifts and miner capitulation phases.
Bitcoin enters the new week in a markedly different mood compared to earlier in June, hovering near one-month lows after failing to breach the stubborn $70,000 resistance multiple times. As traders and analysts ponder the immediate future, questions loom large about whether bulls or bears will gain control of the BTC market.
Bitcoin Struggles Near One-Month Lows
Bitcoin's price action has taken a bearish turn, trailing nearly 5% down last week to briefly dip below $65,000. This downturn is largely attributed to macroeconomic pressures and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which seem to be taking their toll on Bitcoin and other risky assets.
With fewer macro triggers expected this week, the market's focus shifts to employment figures, which may still impact BTC prices due to their influence on the broader U.S. inflation picture.
BTC Price Faces Key Support and Resistance Levels
After a bruising week, Bitcoin bulls saw BTC/USD close down 4.3% at the weekly close. Despite hitting one-month lows, the market managed a modest recovery to around $66,000 — a crucial level as of June 17. However, the "red" week did little to inspire confidence for a definitive resistance/support flip at $69,000 and above.
Monitoring resources like CoinGlass highlight the importance of the $66,000 level in terms of order book liquidity, with $67,300 acting as significant resistance. This creates a narrow trading corridor, leaving many traders in a "wait-and-see" mode until clearer signals emerge.
Miner Capitulation and Network Fundamentals
Bitcoin miners are currently navigating a "capitulation" phase post-halving, adjusting to new economic realities. Network fundamentals are cooling, with mining difficulty set to decrease by around 1.3% this week. This adjustment reflects the ongoing challenges miners face, which are expected to influence BTC prices indirectly.
The hash ribbons metric indicates that despite these challenges, the market remains resilient, supported by strong demand beyond just miner activity. The last capitulation signal from hash ribbons came in August 2023, correlating with BTC/USD dropping to $25,000.
Jobless Claims and Macro Indicators
After a flurry of macroeconomic data in June, the coming week offers some respite with only U.S. jobless claims as a potential catalyst for market volatility. The Juneteenth holiday on June 19 will pause market activities, with jobless claims data expected a day later.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted the profitability of trading swings in Federal Reserve expectations this year. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that the earliest likely date for rate cuts is the Fed’s September meeting, with the next meeting in July having only about 10% odds of resulting in a cut.
Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro emphasized that data points towards a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy, suggesting that current dips could be buying opportunities for risky assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Whale Accumulation and Long-Term Holder Behavior
Despite short-term price fluctuations, Bitcoin whales have shown sustained accumulation, ignoring short-term narratives. Research firm Santiment reports that wallets with 10 BTC or more now number 16.16 million, the highest since June 2022, reflecting 82% of the BTC supply. This suggests a robust accumulation trend among large-volume traders, anticipating future price appreciation.
Additionally, wallets accumulating BTC before the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January have remained largely dormant, turning short-term holders into longer-term investors. This behavior signals strong support, as these holdings are less likely to be sold off quickly.
Bitcoin’s recent struggles highlight the ongoing volatility in the crypto market. With BTC/USD flirting with the lower end of its trading range and macroeconomic factors playing a significant role, traders are adopting a cautious approach.
Key support at $66,000 remains critical. If this level holds, it could provide a foundation for bulls to regain control. Conversely, a break below could trigger further selling pressure. Long-term accumulation trends among whales and miners' adjustments post-halving indicate underlying strength in the market, despite short-term uncertainties.
As the market waits for clearer signals, Bitcoin’s resilience will be tested, and the interplay between macroeconomic data and market sentiment will continue to shape its trajectory. Stay tuned for more updates and insights into the ever-evolving world of digital assets.
(WILLIAM SUBERG, COINTELEGRAPH, 2024)